Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on China-Africa Trade for 1Q25

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), imports from Africa to China has dropped, while exports from China to Africa has risen. Compared to the corresponding quarter in 2024, African imports to China dropped 9.4% to USD 26.7 billion, whereas Chinese exports to Africa rose by 11.3% to reach 45.9 billion. Overall, the trade volume grew modestly by 2.7% to reach USD 72.6 billion.

Africa exports mostly raw materials or unprocessed products to China such as minerals, petroleum and agricultural produce. Due to the raging trade war between China and the USA, trade between the two giants is expected to take a nose dive. Therefore, some analysts believe that the reduction in global trade will result in output from China, which is the world’s factory. As demand slides downwards, there is thus less demand for raw materials and inputs coming from Africa.

On the other hand, China exports mostly finished goods to Africa, including ready-made garments, electronics and machinery. Due to the structural disparity and level of development between Africa and China, balancing the commercial deficit is not that easy.

China has annulled tariffs on all products from the 33 Least Developed Countries (LDC), with the majority in Africa. At the same time, China has removed tariffs on 98% of product categories from 21 African countries. Despite these measures, the impact has been minimal until Africa can move up the Global Value Chain (#GVC) and catalyze its #industrializaton drive.

The upcoming China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is scheduled to take place in June in Changsha, China. It remains to be seen how much such events can shape the trade patterns and influence the balance of payments between China and Africa.