China-Africa Trade Volume on Track to Reach $420B for 2026
On 14 October, China Customs (GACC) released its trade data for 3Q26. The trade volume between China and Africa for the first nine months of 2026 reached nearly USD 300 billion, representing 22.3% year-on-year growth and beating expectations. China’s exports for that period amounted to USD 203 billion, while imports reached USD 109 billion.
Thus, the trade balance of USD 94 billion remains firmly in favor of China, despite imports (22.3%) growing faster than exports (16.4%). The much-touted zero-tariff policy has given a boost to African exports to China, but is far from sufficient to close the trade deficit.
| No. | Market | Trade Vol USD B | YoY % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASEAN | 994 | +23.9 |
| 2 | EU | 694 | +12.9 |
| 3 | LAC | 483 | +19.2 |
| 4 | USA | 463 | +8.6 |
| 5 | AU | 312 | +22.3 |
From a regional perspective, ASEAN holds the lead behind the EU. Trade with the US has slowed significantly due to #tariffs. Despite facing threats, China’s trade with EU does not seem to have suffered much. The #GlobalSouth appears to represent promising new markets for China’s exports.
Drilling down to the country level, the usual suspects appear at the top of the league table of trading partners with China. The large economies of South Africa, Nigeria, and DR Congo make up the top three. Interestingly, the relatively small economy of Liberia stands out by making it to the 5th position in large part due to Liberia being used as a flag of convenience for ships.
An analysis of harmonized system codes reveals certain key drivers of trade. Globally, China exports are driven by semiconductor chips, robotics, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind power equipment. For Africa, the top product categories are machines, electronics, automobiles, and textiles.
| Rank | Country | Trade Vol USD B |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 49.5 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 26.8 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 24.8 |
| 4 | Egypt | 18.7 |
| 5 | Liberia | 16.7 |
| 6 | Angola | 15.9 |
| 7 | Guinea | 15.5 |
| 8 | Algeria | 13.4 |
| 9 | Ghana | 12.9 |
| 10 | Tanzania | 10.6 |
The Chinese currency (RMB) also appreciated significantly vis-a-vis the US dollar (USD), with the exchange rate of 6.99 in January 2026 dropping to 6.71 in September 2026. China’s Central Bank had to intervene in the currency market to slow down the rise of the RMB and avoid an export squeeze.
Based on available data, the China-Africa trade volume is projected to exceed the USD 400 billion mark, and even reach USD 420 billion by the end of 2026. The AU #industrialization policy still has a long way to go, as Africa mainly exports unprocessed commodities, while China exports manufactured products. The jury is also still out regarding the effectiveness of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) — scheduled for 5 to 10 November 2026 — in a bid to bridge the gap between imports and exports.