China’s Zero-Tariff Policy for Africa Might Have Limited Impact
Announced with great fanfare at the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo 2025 in Changsha in June 2025, the zero-tariff policy for Africa is in effect as of the 1st of May 2026. All African countries with diplomatic ties with China are eligible, which is about 53 countries out of a total of 55, making up the African Union. The two exceptions are Eswatini, which prefers to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, while Western Sahara is not yet recognized by the United Nations, and China.
On paper, this sounds like great news, but in reality, the effect might be limited. Looking at the trade data, Africa exports mostly crude oil and raw minerals to China. Most African countries do not have sufficient industrial capacity to meet their own local demand, much less produce for export.
As far as agricultural produce is concerned, much has been written, but in fact, the figures are still modest. Removing customs tariffs is often not sufficient, as China still has substantial non-tariff barriers (NTB), such as strict phytosanitary protocols (#PSP) and specific national standards. The successful cases of Ethiopian coffee bean, Rwandan dried chili, and Kenyan avocado are still far and few between.
South Africa is one of the top fruit producers in Africa, but China has yet to welcome it with full open arms. When South Africa tried to export its citrus fruits to China, it faced one of the world’s strictest phytosanitary regimes, which the Chinese authorities believe were necessary to prevent the introduction of pests such as the False Coding Moth. Then, China demanded extremely high standards to ensure the logistical cold chain, making it nearly impossible to satisfy. Typically, the negotiation for a single fruit can take five to ten years.
As for manufactured goods, it is hard to see how African countries might be in a position to export. China is known as the World’s Factory and produces almost everything under the sun at a scale and cost that cannot easily be matched by other countries.
Taking apparel as a case in point. China has been selling low-cost and even second-hand clothes to Africa, which are cheaper than those sewn up locally. At the same time, Chinese apparel giant Shein has been pushing direct sales online at highly discounted prices. It is hard to see African textile manufacturers exporting their garments to China in any significant volume.
If the zero-tariff policy does not translate into long-term supply contracts, it is unlikely to have any effect on industrialization and readjusting the balance of trade. Long-term contracts would give investors the visibility and confidence in upgrading production capacity. Local authorities must ensure that #LocalContent criteria are satisfied to ensure the benefits are enjoyed mostly locally.
Observers note that the move by China is more than anything a geopolitical show to score points over the USA. While US President Trump is punishing countries, allies and rivals, alike with tariffs, China is cutting down tariffs, or removing them altogether. At the very least, China is demonstrating a semblance of opening up, rather than closing itself up.