How Did Tariffs Actually Affect the US-China Trade in 2025?

2025 saw an escalation in the trade war between the US and China with the application of Trump’s customs #tariffs and China’s countering with export control on #RareEarths. Things have cooled down a bit after the tete-a-tete in Busan on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. Trump is scheduled to visit China in April 2026, and is ratcheting up the pressure on Iran to force a deal.

So how did the US-China trade fare in 2025? Now that the figures are out, we note that the bilateral trade volume in goods has dropped to USD 560 billion, down from USD 582 in 2024, representing a 4% drop year-on-year. The Chinese Customs reported that bilateral trade was actually USD 575 billion, representing a marginal 1% drop. At first glance, it does appear that the tariffs had little effect.

However, if we dig a little deeper, we find that the China-Canada and China-Vietnam trade volumes have gone up quite a bit. That is most probably due to these countries acting as transhipment hubs for Chinese goods. Thus, the US is attempting to close down these loopholes by reinforcing control over rules of origin. As ties between China and Canada started to thaw following the state visit to China by Canadian PM Mark Carney in January 2026, Trump also warned against using Canada as a backdoor into the US for Chinese goods.

Traditionally, quite a sizeable amount of Chinese goods pass through Mexico to enter the US, but that loophole appears to have been plugged as Chinese exports to Mexico stayed almost stagnant at USD 89 billion in 2025.

For the first time, China enjoyed a trade surplus with Germany in 2025. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to undertake a state visit to China from 25 to 26 February to strengthen relations in light of the current trade turmoil.